Mobility Monitor 2025

For: NOVE – Netherlands Business Association for Independent Fuel Suppliers

[January – March 2025]

For NOVE, the Netherlands Business Association for Independent Fuel Suppliers, studio Gear Up developed an annually recurring Mobility Monitor that provides insights on vehicle fleet volumes development and indicates how the liquid and gaseous fuel demand, as well as the deployment of electricity, in The Netherlands transport sector is expected to grow or decline over time.

The Monitor focuses on two main issues:

Vehicle registration and fleet developments

Overview of the most recent information on new registrations and vehicle fleet volume for passenger cars, vans and heavy duty vehicles in the Netherlands (in 2024) and expected developments following existing and adopted policy towards 2030, 2035 and 2050.

Changes in expected transport fuel and energy carrier deployment

Expected volumes of various fuels and energy carriers in the Netherlands transport market, based on these sales and fleet developments and based on the existing and adopted policy measures to mitigate the climate impact in the sector. the fuel scenarios provide overviews of the expected situation in 2025, 2030 and 2035.

The Mobility Monitor helps the members of NOVE to estimate their next year’s fuel and energy carrier volumes.

As soon as NOVE has published the 2025 Mobility Monitor on their website we will link to the concerned website.

Analysis of SAF allowances (FEETS) – 2024-price update

February 2025, the European Commission adopted a new support mechanism on ‘SAF allowances’: used to bridge the price gap for the use of alternative fuels to accelerate the roll out of SAF.
We reviewed this mechanism in order to assess its expected impact on supporting the development of SAF market. We conclude that the policy design would require additional policy instruments to support the broader development of the SAF market.

Current POME-based biofuels in EU fall within current production potential

According to studio Gear Up’s numerical analysis, the current volume of POME-biofuels deployed in the EU are in the range of current production volumes of POME residues. We advise to keep a close look on the future volumes of POME-based biofuels, given the upper limits of production. Strengthening the information position of renewable fuels supply chains with more frequent auditing and historical data of POME-oil production are needed.

SAF allowances may not be the best instrument to ramp up SAF production

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) are renewable fuels that replace fossil based kerosine in aircrafts and are seen as an important option to mitigate climate emissions in the aviation sector. Generally, these alternative fuels are more expensive than their fossil counterpart, kerosene. In order to support the uptake of SAF, the European Commission has introduced several policy instruments.