Mobility Monitor 2023

For: NOVE – Netherlands Business Association for Independent Fuel Suppliers

[February 2022 – March 2024]

For Dutch-based NOVE, the Netherlands Business Association for Independent Fuel Suppliers, studio Gear Up developed an annually recurring Mobility Monitor that provides insights on vehicle fleet volumes development and indicates how the liquid and gaseous fuel demand, as wel as the deployment of electricity, in transport is expected to grow or decline over time. March 2024 we provided the Mobility Monitor 2024 to NOVE and its member organisations.

The Monitor focuses on two main issues:

Vehicle registration and fleet developments

Developments in the new sales and vehicle fleet volume for passenger cars, vans and heavy duty vehicles in the Netherlands towards 2030, 2035 and 2050, and

Changes in expected fuel and energy carrier deployment

Expected volumes of various fuels and energy carriers in the Netherlands transport market, based on these sales and fleet developments and based on the existing and adopted policy measures to mitigate the climate impact in the sector. the fuel scenarios provide overviews of the expected situation in 2025, 2030 and 2035.

More information (in Dutch) can be found at NOVE’s website.

The Mobility Monitor helps the members of NOVE to estimate their next year’s fuel and energy carrier volumes.

Source information

The information is based on public sources that provide regular overview information of ICEV and BEV sales, by RVO, the Netherlands Enterprise Agency, databases from Netherlands Statistics (CBS) as well as the annual Energy and Climate Exploration by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).

Previous Mobility Monitors:

Information about the previous version of the Mobility Monitor can be found here.

High blends of renewable fuels for the heavy-duty fleet in the Netherlands

KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (Kennisinstituut voor Mobiliteit – KiM) commissioned studio Gear Up to conduct research to explore the options for high-blends of renewable fuels in the heavy-duty fleet. This research served as input for KiM’s (2025) report: Renewable fuels in high blends in road freight transport , which provides recommendations for Dutch policy makers aiming to shape climate action in the road sector. The study sets out to explore alternative fuel options available to heavy-duty vehicles given that there is “uncertainty about the pace of truck electrification”.

sGU recommendations for practical certification guidelines intermediate crops

Intermediate crops are crops planted and harvested between main crops in a crop rotation scheme. Their development, on top of existing food and feed farm output, offer additional volumes of feedstocks for the bioeconomy without requiring additional land. studio Gear Up assessed the benefits of intermediate crops, the bottlenecks for their development and deployment and provided recommendations for certification of these crops in the frame of the Renewable Energy Directive.

Consequences of ETS2 implementation on A-B-C deliveries of renewable fuels

Our research for the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management shows that the introduction of the new ETS2 emissions trading system can have important consequences for these constructions. Because these A-B-C supply constructions play a major role in the Dutch fuel market, this is expected to make the use of A-B-C supplies less attractive for fuel suppliers, with market shift and concentration likely to result.